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Research#

Recent Publications#

Please see my GoogleScholar page for the full list of my publications. Some recent work includes:

  • Eisenberg, Daniel A., Aaron B. Fish, and David L. Alderson. “What is wrong with the Mission Dependency Index for US federal infrastructure decisions?.” Risk Analysis 43, no. 8 (2023): 1694-1707.

  • Averitt, Samuel, Erik Dahl, and Daniel Eisenberg. “The Electromagnetic Threat to the US: Resilience Strategy Recommendations.” Journal of Critical Infrastructure Policy 3, no. 2 (2023): 125-150.

  • Kitsak, Maksim, Alexander Ganin, Ahmed Elmokashfi, Hongzhu Cui, Daniel A. Eisenberg, David L. Alderson, Dmitry Korkin, and Igor Linkov. “Finding shortest and nearly shortest path nodes in large substantially incomplete networks by hyperbolic mapping.” Nature Communications 14, no. 1 (2023): 186.

  • Wigal, Jacob, Daniel A. Eisenberg, and David L. Alderson. “Cellular Coverage Mapping in the US Virgin Islands.” (2023).

Current Projects#

Fundamental Models for Resilient Infrastructure Systems#

Modeling is a fundamental activity in Operations Research (OR) that has received limited attention. Modeling is the process (verb) by which models (nouns) are made. Outlined by Gorman (2021), modeling involves at least six activities to produce a model: (1) problem definition, (2) objective function, (3) decision variables, (4) constraints, (5) assumptions, and (6) solution methodology. In the field of OR, models are meant to support two primary uses: for exploring consequences of an action before it is taken and for routine decision support as part of embedded computer systems. The purpose of this project is to produce a new understanding of modeling and its relationship to OR models in the context of resilience analysis for infrastructure. The focus of this work are four conflicting concepts of resilience found throughout the literature that may produce different models: rebound, robustness, extensibility, and adaptability. We organize OR models and modeling practices with respect to these concepts, identify how different resilience concepts lead to the production of different OR models, and identify ways modelers and the modeling process supports adaptation in critical infrastructure systems.

Climate Impacts on Water Infrastructure in the DoD (CIWI-D)#

  • Status: Active, Year 2 of 3

  • Sponsor: DoD Environmental Science Technology Certification Program (ESTCP CIWI-D)

  • Collaborators: Sandia National Laboratories, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Many DoD installations are known to be vulnerable to water scarcity and extreme weather events based on climate change models and tools. However, these tools lack integration with established water infrastructure data and models to determine how changes in climate may impact installation missions during disasters and long-term infrastructure planning. The objective of this project is to develop a seamless, integrated suite of established models and methods for climate vulnerability assessment specifically tailored for DoD installations and water infrastructure called the Climate Impacts on Water Infrastructure for the DoD (CIWI-D) [pronounced “seaweed”].

More detail and associated student theses available: CIWI-D Project

Advancing Resilience Theory and Tools to Combat Environmental Surprise (Dystopia)#

  • Status: Active, Year 4 of 4

  • Sponsor: DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP Dystopia)

  • Collaborators: Arizona State University (ASU)

This project will develop theory and novel tools for improved assessment, planning, and investment of Department of Defense (DoD) infrastructure resources to enhance resilience, sustainment, and mission assurance in the presence of climate extremes and surprises that challenge system function. While best practices for military infrastructure currently follow principles of reliability and risk, these are—by necessity—based on knowledge of past events. They are not suited to adapt infrastructure to dramatic change and/or future surprising events. This project will complement current approaches by predicating investigative techniques on a theory of resilience that emphasizes adaptive response to surprise. This project will advance this theory to develop an investigative method and technology platform for vulnerability analysis, simulation, and wargame exercises with “realistic, yet fictitious” infrastructure systems set in a virtual simulation world to assess and improve the capacity of military installations to adapt to surprise.

More detail and associated student theses available: Dystopia Project

This project as also produced an online game for learning about infrastructure vulnerability and resilience. An example game can be found here: Dystopia Game

USVI Water Systems Analysis and Recovery#

  • Status: Active, Year 1 of 3

  • Sponsor: US Federal Emergency Management Agency

  • Collaborators: University of the Virgin Islands, Witt O’Brien’s, Carollo, US Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority (VIWAPA)

We are providing assistance to the USVI Territory with regard to the replacement of its potable water systems damaged by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. This is in support of ongoing public assistance permanent work and hazard mitigation activities. Specific tasks include support for the re-design and prudent replacement of VIWAPA potable water distribution systems. NPS will providing vital analyses and review for the St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John water distribution master plans. NPS assistance will help achieve outcomes of the replacement of critical infrastructure as well as support resilient measures to reduce climate impacts and identify adaptation strategies.

Please email me for more information on this project.

Socio-Technical Network Generation and Analysis (TOP GEAR)#

  • Status: Active, Year 2 of 2

  • Sponsor: Department of Energy Lab Directed Research and Development (DoE LDRD)

  • Collaborators: Idaho National Laboratories, Helios Global Inc.

Develop a data processing pipeline for the automated construction and analysis of Adversarial Socio-Technical Networks (ASTN) surrounding a technology, organization, or person of interest (TOP) via graph extraction, analysis, and reporting (GEAR) in the energy sector. ASTNs are useful to reveal potentially adversarial soft power tactics that can impact the energy industry such as foreign control, ownership, and influence (FOCI). This work will also develop a supply chain risk metric for regional and national assessment, evaluated like a heat map, that enables proactive evaluation of regions most impacted by domestic decisions on “banned lists”.

Please email me for more information on this project.



Past Projects#

Critical Infrastructure Resilience Coordination and Assessment (CIRCA)#

  • Status: Completed Fall 2023, Final Report Under Review

  • Sponsor: DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP CIRCA)

  • Collaborators: Converege Strategies, LLC., University of Rhode Island, University of Hawaii, University of Maryland, US DoE

This project applied modeling methods primarily used to identify vulnerabilities in large-scale civilian infrastructure systems to military installations and surrounding communities. Associated research efforts focused on assessing vulnerabilities inside the fence line (directly supporting missions) and outside the fence line (in communities that can impact installation readiness). Research focused inside the fence line included the development of modeling architectures for interdependent infrastructure systems at military installations and linking these techniques to established DoD infrastructure protection and investment practices. Research focused outside the fence line included case studies on how military installations and their surrounding communities can work together to improve mission assurance. Case studies were developed for two military installations: Naval Station (NAVSTA) Newport on Aquidneck Island, Rhode Island, and Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) on Oahu, Hawaii.

The research outputs addressing these hypotheses are models and methods to identify disruptions to infrastructure systems on military installations, case studies on installation vulnerability and emergency decision-making, and linking assessments to infrastructure investment. Taken together, the results from this project respond directly to the objectives articulated in the FY2020 SON.

More detail and associated student theses available: CIRCA

USVI Interdependent Infrastructure Analysis and Recovery#

  • Status: Completed Fall 2023

  • Sponsor: US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

  • Collaborators: University of the Virgin Islands, Witt O’Brien’s, Carollo, US Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority (VIWAPA), Sandia National Laboratories, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US EPA

This project builds on preliminary work to provide modeling, analysis, and subject matter expertise to the Infrastructure Systems Recovery Support Function (RSF) and the Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF following Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria in the territory of the US Virgin Islands (USVI). Specifically, this project conducted (1) modeling and analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems within the territory, with emphasis on assessing and improving their operational resilience; (2) support for the development of a next-generation hazard mitigation and resilience plan in the territory; and (3) capacity building efforts via the development of an education and training pipeline for knowledgeable professionals who understand and think about hazard mitigation and operational resilience of the USVI in everything they do. This project explicitly supports several other complementary efforts, particularly those hosted at the University of the Virgin Islands.

More detail and associated student theses available: USVI-Recovery

The results of this work directly inform the Hazard Mitigation and Resilience Plan for the USVI Territory, published here: USVI HMRP




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