SELECTED PRESENTATIONS

Lucas, T.W., “Combat Modeling in the United States’ Department of Defense,” invited talk at the first Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium, York, United Kingdom, July 2024.

Parker, J.D., and T.W. Lucas, “The Variability in Design Quality Measures for Multiple Types of Space filling Designs Created by Leading Software Packages,” 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, San Antonio, TX, December 2023.

Lucas, T.W., “A Statistical Analysis of Historical Land Battles: What is Associated With Winning?” invited talk at the First Historical Analysis Annual Conference, Vienna, VA, September 2022.

Lucas, T.W., “Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battle of Kursk and Other Time-Phased Battle Data,” invited talk at the First Historical Analysis Annual Conference, Vienna, VA, September 2022.

Lucas, T.W., G. Kelser, and P.J. Sanchez, "A Data Farming Analysis of a Simulation of Armstrong's Stochastic Salvo Model," 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, Oxon Hill, MD, December 2019.

Sanchez, S.M., P.J. Sanchez, Lucas, T.W. Lucas, "An Introduction to Modern Design and Analysis of High-Dimensional Computer Experiments aka Data Farming 101," Tutorial to Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, CA, September 2018.

Sanchez, P.J., S.M. Sanchez, Lucas, T.W. Lucas, A. Hernandez, M.L. McDonald, and S.C. Upton, "An Introduction to Modern Design and Analysis of High-Dimensional Computer Experiments," Tutorial at Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Monterey, CA, June 2018.

Lucas, T.W., "Getting the Most From Your Model Through Efficient Design of Experiments," MORS M&S Community of Practice Seminar, Distributed Teleconference, December 2017.

Sanchez, P.J., A.E. Opcin, A.H. Buss, and T.W. Lucas, "Modeling Anti-Air Warfare with Discrete Event Simulation and Analyzing Naval Convoy Operations," 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, Las Vegas, NV, December 2017.

Lucas, T.W., "An Introduction to Combat Modeling and Hughes' Salvo Equations," Technologies for Information Operations (TIO) Short Course, Monterey, CA, November 2017.

Hogarth, A.R., T.W. Lucas, and C.S. McLemore. "Improving Navy Recruiting with Data Farming," 2016 Winter Simulation Conference, Arlington, VA, December 2016.

Sanchez, P.J., T.W. Lucas, and S.M. Sanchez, "Recent Breakthroughs in Large Scale Simulation Experiments," 54th U.S. Army Operations Research Symposium, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, November 2016.

Lucas, T.W., M.L. McDonald, B.L. Morgan, P.J. Sanchez, S.M. Sanchez, H.C. Schramm, J.R. Smith, and S.C. Upton, "Improving U.S. Navy Campaign Analyses with Big Data," Invited Talk at The 33rd Quality & Productivity Research Conference, Tempe, AZ, June 2016.

Sanchez, S.M., P.J. Sanchez, and T.W. Lucas, "The Fundamentals of Data Farming," Five day course given to Australia's Defence Science and Technology Group, Melbourne, Australia, May 2016.

Lucas, T.W., S.M. Sanchez, M.L. McDonald, and S.C. Upton, "Navy MPTE Data Farming Workshop," Office of the Chief of Naval Personnel, N-14, Arlington, VA, March 2016.

McDonald, M. L., S. C. Upton, C. N. Seymour, T. W. Lucas, S. M. Sanchez, P. J. Sanchez, H. C. Schramm, and J. R. Smith, "Enhancing the Analytic Utility of the Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM)," 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, Savannah Georgia, December 2014.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Supporting Military Decision Makers with Efficient Computational Experimentation: An overview of the SEED Center for Data Farming," Marine Corps ORSAPalooza, Quantico, VA, December 2014.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Supporting Military Decision Makers with Efficient Computational Experimentation," Center for Army Analysis, Fort Belvoir, VA, December 2014.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Improving Navy MPTE Studies with Model-Driven Big Data," Office of the Chief of Naval Personnel, N-14, Arlington, VA, December 2014.

Lucas, T.W., "The Growing Power and Usage of Simulation," Operations Research Departmental Seminar, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, April 2013.

Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, P.J., and Sanchez, S.M., "Breakthroughs in Designing Simulation Experiments," Video Teleconference to Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Assessments, N-81, Pentagon, VA, February 2013.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Breakthroughs in Designing Simulation Experiments," Seminar at the Army Research Laboratory's Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate, Las Cruces, NM, November 2012.

Sanchez, S.M., Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, P.J., and Hernandez, A.S., "Recent Breakthroughs in Large Scale Simulation Experiments," Army Conference on Applied Statistics, Monterey, CA, October 24-26, 2012.

Lucas, T.W., "Faculty Success at NPS—Teaching," Compass New faculty Orientation seminar, Monterey, CA, September 2012.

Lucas, T.W., "The SEED Center and Data Farming," INFORMS Military Application Society Conference 2012, Monterey, CA, March 2012.

Sanchez, P.J., Sanchez, S.M., and Lucas, T.W., "The ABC's of Simulation Experiments," International Data Farming Workshop 24, Monterey, CA, March 2012.

Lucas, T.W., "Breakthroughs in Simulation Studies: Making our Models Work for Us," seminar at The University of Applied Sciences Technikum Wien, Vienna, Austria, December 2011.

Lucas, T.W., "Breakthroughs in Simulation Studies: New Designs and Applications," seminar at The Universität der Bundeswehr München, Munich, Germany, November 2011.

Lucas, T.W., "What is Growing in the SEED Center for Data Farming:  New Methods and Applications," DSO National Laboratories, Singapore, April 2011.

Lucas, T.W., “Improving Analysis with the Integrated Training Center (ITC) Model for Time-to-Train Estimates,” Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, November 2010.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Breakthroughs in Simulation Studies: Making our Models Work for Us,” Presentation to the National Academies’ Board of Mathematical Sciences and their Applications, Washington, DC, October 2010.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “The Power of Efficient Experimental Design,” International Data Farming Workshop 21, Lisbon, Portugal, September 2010.

Sanchez, S.M., and Lucas, T.W., “V&V for Combat Models: How Experimental Design can Help,” Meeting of the Committee on Mathematical Foundation of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification, Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, August 2010.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Better than a Petaflop:  The Power of Efficient Experimental Design,” International Data Farming Workshop 20, Monterey, CA, March 2010.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “SEED Center for Data Farming: Top-level Overview and Recent News,” International Data Farming Workshop 20, Monterey, CA, March 2010.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Supporting Military Decision Makers with Efficient Computational Experimentation:  An Overview of the SEED Center for Data Farming,” Naval Operations Research Workshop, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Vina Del Mar, Chile, December 2009.   

Sanchez, S.M., Sanchez, P.J., and Lucas, T.W., “The Power of Efficient Experimental Design,” International Data Farming Workshop 19, Auckland, New Zealand, November 2009.

Lucas, T.W., “Supporting Military Decision Makers with Efficient Computational Experimentation,” DSO National Laboratories, Singapore, October 2009.

Sanchez, S.M., Marlin, B., Lucas, T.W., and Larson, A., “Developing and Assessing Irregular Warfare Models to Support IED Interdiction and Mitigation,” INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, October 2009. 

Lucas, T.W., and Zappa, D.R., “Integrating New Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Systems into a Marine Rifle Company,” JIEDDO Chartered Analytic Program Review, Crystal City, VA, June 2009.

Lucas, T.W., and Marlin, B.J., “Ascertaining Validity in the Abstract Realm of PMESII Simulation Models:  An Analysis of the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM),” Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Conference, National Defense University, Washington, D.C., June 2009. 

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Modeling and Simulation for Analysis and Computational Experimentation,” Special Course in Advanced Simulation for Senior Leaders in Army Career Field 57, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, May 2009.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Better than a Petaflop:  The Power of Efficient Experimental Design,” International Data Farming Workshop 18, Monterey, CA, March 2009.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “SEED Center for Data Farming: Top-level Overview and Recent News,” International Data Farming Workshop 18, Monterey, CA, March 2009.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Agent-based Models in the Department of Defense: Motivation, History, and Applications,” NISS Agent-based Modeling Workshop, National Institute of Statistical Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC, November 2008.

Lucas, T.W., “SEED Center Support for JIEDDO,” Naval Postgraduate School Foundation, Monterey, CA, October 2008.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Efficient Design of Experiments at the Naval Postgraduate School,” Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany, September 2008.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., “Better than a Petaflop:  The Power of Efficient Experimental Design,” International Data Farming Workshop 17, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, September 2008.

Lucas, T.W., “The Bootstrap: Or, What to do When My Statistics Book Fails Me!” National Assessment Group, Kirtland Air Force Base, Albuquerque, New Mexico, January 2008.

Lucas, T.W., “Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Studying Systems of Systems,” DSO National Laboratories, Singapore, October 2007.

Lucas, T.W., “Experimental Designs and Analysis for Simulation Studies of Systems of Systems,” National University of Singapore, Singapore, October 2007.

Kent, W., Lucas, T., Pearman, G., Middleton, V., and Alt, J., “Modeling Chemical Environments and Effects on Mobile Forces Using an Agent-based Simulation,” 75th Military Operations Research Symposium, Annapolis, Maryland, June 2007.

Mahon, C., Hughes, W., and Lucas, T., “The Littoral Combat Model: Analyzing Combat Interactions Between Sea-based and Land-based Forces,” 75th Military Operations Research Symposium, Annapolis, Maryland, June 2007.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "The Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments for Defense and Homeland Security Applications," Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, Washington, August 2006.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "The New SEED Center for Data Farming," Project Albert 12th International Workshop, Boppard, Germany, June 2006.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Design of Experiments for Analyzing Systems of Systems," The 13th US-ROK Defense Analysis Seminar, Seoul, Korea, April 2006.

Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, S.M., and Martinez , F., "Using Simulation to Study the Protection of Critical Maritime Assets," International Maritime Protection Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 2005.

Sanchez, S.M., Wan, H., and Lucas, T.W., "A Two-phase Screening Procedure for Simulation Experiments," 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, Orlando, Florida, December 2005.

Sanchez, S.M., Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, P.J., "Experimental Designs for large Scale Simulation Studies," U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, October 2005.

Lucas, T.W., "Game Theory: When Theory Meets Practice," LucasFest, Claremont Graduate School, Claremont, California, June 2005.

Sanchez, S.M., and Lucas, T.W., "Updated Experimental Design and Analysis in the Data Farming Environment," Project Albert 10th International Workshop, Stockholm, Sweden, May 2005.

Lucas, T.W., "On Increasing the Data Farming Harvest," RAND Seminar, RAND, Santa Monica, California, February 2005.

Cioppa, T.M., Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Advancements in Large Scale Experimental Design," Military Operations Research Society Tutorial on "New" Analysis Techniques:  Understanding and Applications, Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, Maryland, January 2005.

Sanchez, S.M., and Lucas, T.W., and Cioppa, T.M., "Military Applications of Agent-based simulations," Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, D.C., December 2004.

Sanchez, S.M., and Lucas, T.W., "Experimental Design and Analysis in the Data Farming Environment," Project Albert 9th International Workshop, Wellington, New Zealand, November 2004.

Lucas, T.W., and Sanchez, S.M., "Data Farming: Accidental VV&A," Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, October 2004.

Cioppa, T.M., and Lucas, T.W., "Agent-Based Simulations Supporting Military Analyses," Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, October 2004.

Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, S.M., and Widdowson, B., "Data Farming: Accidental VV&A," Military Operations Research Society Symposium, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, June 2004.

Lucas, T.W., "Military Modeling for Decision-Making," Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) Seminar, Singapore, November 2003.

Lucas, T.W., "Improving the Analytical Contribution of Warfighting Experiments," Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) Seminar, Singapore, November 2003.

Lucas, T.W., "Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes," 20th International Symposium on Military Operations Research, Oxford, United Kingdom, August 2003.

Lucas, T.W., "High-dimensional Explorations of Agent-based Simulations," Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Open House, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, August 2003.

Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, S.M., "Exploring the World of Agent-Based Simulations: Simple Models, Complex Analyses," 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, San Diego, California, December 2002.

Lucas, T.W., "Some Prototype Agent-based Simulation Studies," DSO National Laboratories seminar, Singapore, October 2003.

Lucas, T.W., "Empirical Assessments of Simulation Search Strategies," Joint Temasek Defense Systems Institute and Industrial and Systems Engineering Depart seminar, National University of Singapore, Singapore, October 2002.

Lucas, T.W., Sanchez, S.M., "Getting the Most From Our Models: Efficient High-dimensional Explorations," 5th Project Albert International Workshop, Uberlingen, Germany, July 2002.

Lucas, T.W., "Reducing Non-monotonicities in Combat Models," Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Fort Leavenworth, KS, June 2002.

Lucas, T.W., "Exploring the Validation of Lanchester Equations for the Battle of Kursk," Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Fort Leavenworth, KS, June 2002.

Lucas, T.W., "Predicting Battle Outcomes With Classification Trees," Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Fort Leavenworth, KS, June 2002.

Lucas, T.W., Four days of seminars on combat modeling and statistical methods in simulation analysis to faculty, officers, and students from the Turkish Military Academy, Turkish Army Headquarters, and Middle East Technical University, April 2002.

Lucas, T.W., "Adaptive Exploration of Project Albert Distillations," INFORMS International, Maui, HI, June 2001.

Lucas, T.W., "Adaptive Exploration of Agent-Based Command and Control Simulations," INFORMS Military Applications Society 4th Annual International Meeting, Quantico, VA, May 2001.

Lucas, T.W., "Adaptive Exploration of Agent-based Command and Control Simulations," Project Albert Review Panel, Maui, HI, March 2001.

Lucas, T.W., "Joint Combat Modeling at NPS," Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulations (MOVES) Open House, Monterey, CA, August 2000.

Lucas, T.W., "A Close Look at the Stochastic Versus Deterministic Argument for Combat Models: Tales of When the Average Won't Do!" Military Operations Research Society Symposium, Colorado Springs, CO, June 2000.

Lucas, T.W., "Fitting Lanchester and Other Equations to the Battle of Kursk Data," Center for Army Analysis, Fort Belvoir, VA, June 2000.

Lucas, T.W., "Experiments on the Values of Information and Force Advantage," OPNAV N81, Pentagon, VA, June 2000.

Lucas, T.W., "Why Most Combat Models Should be Stochastic: Tales of When the Average Won't Do," Military Operations Research Society Symposium, West Point, NY, June 1999.

Lucas, T.W., "Advanced Methods in Simulation Analysis," Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, May 1999.

Lucas, T.W., "Ideas to Enhance the Analytic Contribution of Joint Experiments," The Military Operations Research Societies Workshop on Joint Experimentation, Armed Forces Staff College, Norfolk, VA, March 1999.

Lucas, T.W., "The Warfighting Experiment Analytical Process--Where Do We Go From Here?" The U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics (ACAS), Las Cruces, NM, October 1998.

Lucas, T.W., "Improving the Analytical Contribution of Advanced Warfighting Experiments," 2nd Center for Military Analysis--Naval Postgraduate School Meeting, Haifa, Israel, July 1998.

Lucas, T.W., "The Warfighting Experiment Analytical Process--Where Do We Go From Here?" Army Senior Analysts' Review, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, February 1998.

Lucas, T.W., "RAND 's Credible Uses of Simulation (CUSim) and the Use of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) in OT&E," Director of Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E), Pentagon, VA, September 1997.

Lucas, T.W., "Most Combat Models Should be Stochastic! How one Randomizes Matters!" Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, August 1997.

Lucas, T.W., tutorial on "Advanced Methods in Simulation Analysis," Military Operations Research Society, Quantico, VA, June 1997.

Lucas, T.W., "A Framework for Validating and Using Models," Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Workshop on model validation, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1996.

Lucas, T.W., and Bennett, B., "Modeling and Simulation: Improving Analysis with ADS," Air Force Advisory Group, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, March 1996.

Lucas, T.W., "Credible Uses of Distributed Interactive Simulations as Applied to Advanced Warfighting Experiments," Army Senior Analysts' Review, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, February 1996.

Lucas, T.W., and Vye, P., "Some Thoughts on Statistics and Simulation Based Defense Analysis," National Research Council (NRC) on Statistics in the Department of Defense (DoD), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, October 1995.

Lucas, T.W., and Bankes, S., "Statistical Approaches for the Exploratory Modeling of Large Complex Models," International Symposium on Theory and Applications of Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output in Computer Simulation, Milan, Italy, September 1995.

Lucas, T.W., "Effective Applications of Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS)," Modeling and Simulation Roundtable, Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, VA, May 1995.

Lucas, T.W., "Some Thoughts on Statistics and Distributed Interactive Combat Simulations," Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) Seminar, Alexandria, VA, October 1994.

Lucas, T.W., "Design of Experiment Principles as Applied to Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS)," Workshop on Standards for the Interoperability of Distributed Simulations, Orlando, FL, September 1994.

Lucas, T.W., "Limiting Forms of the Posterior When the Data Conflicts with the Prior," Cornell University, Department of Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, March 1994.

Lucas, T.W., "When is Conflict Normal?," First Annual International Society of Bayesian Analysts, San Francisco, CA, August 1993.

Lucas, T.W., "Eighteen Months of Statistics in the Real World," University of California at Riverside, Department of Statistics, June 1993.

Lucas, T.W., "Limiting Forms of the Posterior When the Data Conflicts with the Prior," University of California at Riverside, Department of Statistics, October 1991.

Lucas, T.W., "Conflict is Normal," Southern California Chapter of the American Statistical Association, January 1991.

Lucas, T.W., "The Impact of Data Fusion on Mission Effectiveness," Tri Services Data Fusion Symposium at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, May 1990.

Lucas, T.W., "Force Coordination in a Naval AAW Environment," ORSA/TIMS Conference, Las Vegas, NV, May 1990.