Journal Articles, Book Chapters, and Refereed RAND Publications

Lovejoy, C.V., M.L. McDonald, T.W. Lucas, and S.M. Sanchez, "Investigating an Active Shooter Defeat System with Simulation and Data Farming," to appear in Proceedings of the 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ.

Thompson, C., T.W. Lucas, and M.L. McDonald, "Estimating the Effects of Combat Load Weight on Mission Outcomes," PHALANX, 53(1), 2020, 52-57.

Kelser, G., T.W. Lucas, and P.J. Sanchez, "A Data Farming Analysis of a Simulation of Armstrong's Stochastic Salvo Model," forthcoming in Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2019.

Lucas, T.W., M.L. McDonald, B.L. Morgan, P.J. Sanchez, S.M. Sanchez, H.C. Schramm, J.R. Smith, and S.C. Upton, "Improving U.S. Navy Campaign Analyses with Big Data," Interfaces, 48(2), 2018, pp. 130-146.

MacCalman, A.D., H. Vieira, and T.W. Lucas, "Second Order Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercubes for Exploring Complex Stochastic Simulations," Journal of Simulation, 11(2), 2017, pp. 137-150.

Opcin, A.E., A.H. Buss, T.W. Lucas, and P.J. Sanchez, "Modeling Anti-Air Warfare with Discrete Event Simulation and Analyzing Naval Convoy Operations," Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2017, pp. 4048-4057.

Hogarth, A.R., T.W. Lucas, and C.S. McLemore. "Improving Navy Recruiting with Data Farming," Proceedings of the 2016 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2016, pp. 3576-3577.

Lucas, T.W., "Learning by Solving Real Problems," ORMS Today, 43(4), August 2016, pp. 24-27.

Lucas, T.W., W.D. Kelton, S.M. Sanchez, P.J. Sanchez, and B.L. Anderson, "Changing the Paradigm: Simulation, Often the Method of First Resort," Naval Research Logistics, 62, 2015, pp. 293-303.

McDonald, M. L., S. C. Upton, C. N. Seymour, T. W. Lucas, S. M. Sanchez, P. J. Sanchez, H. C. Schramm, and J. R. Smith. "Enhancing the Analytic Utility of the Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM)," Proceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, 2014, pp. 4136-4137.

Slootmaker, L.A., E. Regnier, J.A. Hansen, and T.W. Lucas, "User Focus and Simulation Improve Predictions of Piracy Risk," Interfaces, 43(3), May-June 2013, pp. 256-267.

Hernandez, A.S., T.W. Lucas, and M. Carlyle, "Constructing Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercubes for Any Nonsaturated Run-Variable Combination," ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 22(4), November 2012, pp. 20:1-20:17.

Powers, M.J., S.M. Sanchez, and T.W. Lucas, "The Exponential Expansion of Simulation in Research," Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. C. Laroque, J. Himmelspach, R. Pasupathy, O. Rose, and A.M. Uhrmacher. Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2012, Article 138.

Hernandez, A.S., T.W. Lucas, and P.J. Sanchez, "Selecting Random Latin Hypercube Dimensions and Designs through Estimation of Maximum Absolute Pairwise Correlation," Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. C. Laroque, J. Himmelspach, R. Pasupathy, O. Rose, and A.M. Uhrmacher. Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2012, Article 25.

Sanchez, S.M., T.W. Lucas, P.J. Sanchez, C.J. Nannini, and H. Wong, "Designs for Large-Scale Simulation Experiments with Applications to Defense and Homeland Security," Design and Analysis of Experiments, volume III, by Hinckleman (ed.), Wiley, 2012, pp. 413-441.

Oh, R. P. T., S. M. Sanchez, T.W. Lucas, H. Wan, and M.E. Nissen, “Efficient Experimental Design Tools for Exploring Large Simulation Models,” Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory, 15:3, 2010, pp. 237-257.

Sanchez, S.M., H. Wan, and T.W. Lucas, “A Two-Phase Screening Procedure for Simulation Experiments,” ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 19(2), March 2009, pp. 7:1-7:24.

Lucas, T.W., S.M. Sanchez, F. Martinez, J.W. Roginski, L.R. Sickinger, “Defense and Homeland Security Applications of Multi-agent Simulations,” invited paper, Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. S.G. Henderson, B. Biller, M.-H. Hsieh, J. Shortle, J.D. Tew, R.R. Barton, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2007, pp. 138-149.

Cioppa, T.M., and T.W. Lucas, "Efficient Nearly Orthogonal and Space-filling Latin Hypercubes," Technometrics, 49(1) February 2007, pp. 45-55.

Sanchez, S.M., H. Wan, and T.W. Lucas, "A Two-Phase Screening Procedure for Simulation Experiments," Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference , eds. M.E. Kuhl, N.M. Steiger, F.B. Armstrong, and J.A. Joines, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2005, pp. 223-230.

Kleijnen, J.P.C., S.M. Sanchez, T.W. Lucas, and T.M. Cioppa, "A User's Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments," INFORMS Journal on Computing, 17(3), 2005, pp. 263-289.

Lucas, T.W., and J.A. Dinges, "The Effect of Battle Circumstances on Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battle of Kursk," Military Operations Research, 9(2), 2004, pp. 17-30.

Lucas, T.W., and T. Turkes, "Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes," Naval Research Logistics, 51, February 2004, pp. 95-116.

Cioppa, T.M., T.W. Lucas, and S.M. Sanchez, "Military Applications of Agent-based Simulations," Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. R.G. Ingalls, M.D. Rossetti, J.S. Smith, and B.A. Peters. Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2004, pp. 171-180.

Brown, L., T. Cioppa, and T. Lucas, "Agent-Based Simulations Supporting Military Analysis," PHALANX, 37(3), September 2004, pp. 29-32.

Lucas, T.W., "How Damage Functions Affect Estimates of Fratricide and Collateral Damage," Naval Research Logistics, 50, June 2003, pp. 306-321.

Lucas, T.W., and J. McGunnigle, "When is Model Complexity Too Much? Illustrating the Benefits of Simple Models With Hughes' Salvo Equations," Naval Research Logistics, 50, April 2003, pp. 197-217.

Lucas, T.W. , S.M. Sanchez, T.M. Cioppa , and A.I. Ipekci, "Generating Hypotheses on Fighting the Global War on Terrorism," Maneuver Warfare Science 2003, United States Marine Corp Project Albert, Quantico, VA, 2003, pp. 107-124.

Wan, S.C., C.S. Choo, E.C. Ng, C.K. Ang, T.W. Lucas, and A. Fry, "Modeling Communications in Sensor Networks Using Agent-Based Distillations," Maneuver Warfare Science 2003, United States Marine Corp Project Albert, Quantico, VA, 2003, pp. 23-38.

Sanchez, S.M., and T.W. Lucas, "Agent-based Simulations: Simple Models, Complex Analyses," invited paper, Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. J.L. Snowdon, J. Charnes, C-H Chen and E. Yucesan. Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers: Piscataway, NJ, 2002, pp. 116-126.

Lucas, T.W., S.M. Sanchez, L. Brown, and W. Vinyard, "Better Designs for High-Dimensional Explorations of Distillations," Maneuver Warfare Science 2002, United States Marine Corp Project Albert, Quantico, VA, 2002, pp. 17-45.

Vinyard, W., and T. Lucas, "Exploring Combat Models for Non-monotonicities and Remedies," PHALANX, 35(1), March 2002, pp. 19, 36-38.

McGunnigle, J., W. Hughes, and T. Lucas, "Human Experiments on the Values of Information and Force Advantage," PHALANX, 33(4), December, 2000, pp. 10-11, 26-27.

Lucas, T.W., "The Stochastic Versus Deterministic Argument for Combat Simulations: Tales of When the Average Won't Do!" Military Operations Research: Special Issue on Warfare Analysis and Complexity-the New Sciences, 5 (3), 2000, pp. 9-28.

Lucas, T., B. Bennett, J. Friel, and R. Kerchner, "ADS for Analysis: Much Agreement, Important Differences," PHALANX, 31(4), December, 1998, pp. 8-10.

Galway, L., and T.W. Lucas, "Comments on Pressure Matching for Hydrocarbon Reservoirs," in Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Volume III, Gatsonis, Hodges, Kass, and Singpurwalla (Eds.), Springer-Verlag, New York, 1997, pp. 87-91.

Lucas, T., B. Bennett, J. Friel, and R. Kerchner, "Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS) for Analysis: The Reality and the Hype," PHALANX, 30(3), September, 1997, pp. 10-12.

Allen, P., and T. Lucas, "Non-monotonicity: Clarifications and a New Direction," PHALANX, 30(3), September, 1997, pp. 32-34.

Lucas, T., S. Bankes, and P. Vye, "Improving the Analytic Contribution of Advanced Warfighting Experiments (AWEs)," DB-207-A, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1997.

Lucas, T., J. Friel, R. Kerchner, and D. Jones, "A Guide for Analysis Using Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS)," MR-879-AF, RAND, Santa Monica , CA, 1997.

Lucas, T.W., "How One Randomizes Matters: A Study of Randomness and Non-monotonicity in Combat Models," PHALANX, 30(1), March, 1997, pp. 7-10.

Farley, D., G. Carter, J. Kallich, T. Lucas, and K. Spritzer, "Modified Capitation and Treatment Incentives for End Stage Renal Disease," Health Care Financing Review, 17(3), Spring, 1996, pp.129-142.

Dewar, J., S. Bankes, J. Hodges, T. Lucas, D. Saunders-Newton, and P. Vye, "Credible Uses of the Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) System," MR-607-A, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1996.

Kerchner, R., J. Friel, T. Lucas, and D. Jones, "Understanding the Air Force's Capability to Use Advanced Distributed Simulation for Analysis," MR-744-AF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1996.

Lucas, T.W., "Priors and Likelihoods That Are Arbitrarily Sensitive to Outlying Observations," Biometrika, 81(2), June 1994, pp. 385-389.

Farley, D., G. Carter, J. Kallich, T. Lucas, and K. Spritzer, "Designing a Capitation Payment Plan for Medicare End Stage Renal Disease Services," MR-391-HCFA, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1994.

Lucas, T.W., "When is Conflict Normal?" Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, December 1993, pp. 1433-1437.