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Operations Research Department
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93943

Office: Glasgow Hall 236
(831) 656-3039
DSN: 756-3039
Fax: (831) 656-2595

Thomas W. Lucas


Kline, J., J. Tanalega, J. Appleget, and T.W. Lucas, "Developing New Tactics and Technologies in Naval Warfare: The MDUSV Example," online at Center for International Maritime Security,, 24 January 2019.

Mahon, C.M., W.P. Hughes, and T.W. Lucas, "Is a Ship a Fool to Fight a Fort?  A Littoral Combat Model for Land-Sea Engagements," unpublished technical report, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2008.

Kelton, D., G.E. Horne, E. Lesnowicz, and T.W. Lucas, “Observations and Suggestions from the ABS VV&A Framework Study Workshop,” appearing in The Agent-based (ABS) Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) Study Phase II, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, Reston, VA, 15 September 2008.

Oh, R., S.M. Sanchez, T.W. Lucas, and H. Wong, “Efficient Experimental Design Tools for Exploring Command and Control Organizational Structures,” forthcoming in the Proceedings of the 13th International Command and Control Research Technology Symposium, 2008.

Lucas, T.W., and S.M. Sanchez, “The Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments for Defense and Homeland Security Applications,” 2006 Joint Statistical Meetings Proceedings, 2006, pp. 1212-1218.

Lucas, T.W., and S.M. Sanchez, “Design of Experiments for Analyzing Systems of Systems,” The 13th US-ROK Defense Analysis Seminar, April, 2006.

Lucas, T.W., and S.M. Sanchez, "Smart Experimental Designs Provide Military Decision-Makers With New Insights From Agent-Based Simulations," Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13(2), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2003, pp. 20-21, 57-59, 63.

Lucas, T.W., and S.M. Sanchez, "NPS Hosts the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory's Sixth Project Albert International Workshop," Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13(2), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2003, pp. 45-46.

Cioppa, T.M., and T.W. Lucas, "A Clinical Paper On Efficient Strategies in High-Dimensional Complex Models," Proceeding of the U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics, Published by George Mason University for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, 2001.

Lucas, T.W., "Credible Uses of Combat Simulation: A Framework for Validating and Using Models," RAND, P-7990, 1997.

Lucas, T.W., "A Study of Non-Monotonicity and Randomness in Combat Models," RAND, P-7997, 1997.

Lucas, T., L. Moore, and P. Vye, "Designing Experiments for the Modern Heavy Division Design," RAND, DRR-1533-A, 1996.

Lucas, T., J. Friel, R. Kerchner, and D. Jones, "A Guide for Analysis Using Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS)," RAND, DRR-1501-AF, 1996.

Joe, L., J. Grossman, T. Lucas, and L. Moore, "Achieving OPTEC's Vision," RAND, DRR-1542-A, 1996.

Lucas, T., S. Bankes, and P. Vye, "Credible Analysis in Advanced Warfighting Experiments," RAND, DRR-1289-A-1, 1996.

Kerchner, R., J. Friel, and T. Lucas, "Improving the USAF's Capability to Effectively Apply Advanced Distributed Simulation for Analysis," RAND, DRR-1111-AF, 1995.

Lucas, T.W., "An Air Force Review of the Extended Air Defense Testbed," RAND, PM-201-AF, 1994.

Farley, D., J. Kallich, G. Carter, T. Lucas, and K. Spritzer, "Designing a Capitation Payment Plan for Medicare ESRD Services," RAND, DRU-518-HCFA, 1993.

Bennett, B., G. Born, and T. Lucas, "High-Level Design and Systems/Segment Specification for a Mission-Level Model," RAND, DRU-152-AF, 1993.

Born, G., B. Bennett, and T. Lucas, "A Comparative Model Assessment of SUPPRESSER and EADSIM," RAND, PM-117-AF, 1993.

Lucas, T.W., "Advanced Methods in Simulation Analysis," RAND, V-029, 1993.

Lucas, T.W., "Robust Bayesian Inference When the Data Conflict with the Prior," Ph. D. Dissertation, University of California at Riverside, University Microfilms International, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1991.

Lucas, T.W., K.M. Schwab, and S. Feldman, "The Impact of Data Fusion on Mission Effectiveness," Technical Proceedings of the 1990 Joint Service Data Fusion Symposium, Published by the Naval Air Development Center, 1990.


Material contained herein is made available for the purpose of peer review and discussion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of the Navy or the Department of Defense.

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